positive last month, look for that to continue. it's all about the consumer, and it's all about durable goods. tune in. >> i'm diana olick in washington. we've seen a lot of positives in housing, but will they continue into the dog days of summer? we get numbers tomorrow morning at 10:00 a.m. and before we say good night, take a look at the day on wall street, a pretty good, though way off the highs of the afternoon. 9539 at one point. the index was above 9600, actually. we did have strength in technology, the oil really the laggard there. technology somewhat of a laggard. the nasdaq still picked up 6.25 points, to 24 the last trait on

the nasdaq, and s&p 500 up 2.5%, even oil prices, pretty big story today as well, oil price finishing at 71-mrs., pulling back from yesterday's ten-month high. tomorrow we're going to take a look at a number of events for this market, including more economic data. of course today we had a bit of -- and consumer confidence out also better than expected. of course, we did get ben bernanke's reappointment by president obama. have a wonderful evening. i'll see you tomorrow. "fast money" is up next. this is "fast money" from new york's times square. welcome to america's post-market show. rick santelli in for melissa

lee. these are the "fast money" traders. stocks hitting new highs for the year, well, they give a little back. that's the deja vu. we had good housing, a lot of good data, six-day winning streak. will it keep up? the word on the street, guys? >> hello, rick. >> hello, guys. >> i missed you yesterday. >> as traders, sometimes you have to admit when you're wrong, well, i've been wrong, but i'm sticking to my guns. joe will talk about the reversal in crude, i'm sure you have some views on it. i think the fact that we sold off as hard as we did. this 1028 level is a big level. i think we're headed a lot lower this week, maybe early next week. >> you talk about the sectors we thought would perform well, commodities, resource names, those rolled over today. it was all about consumer discretionary, that's where the money was going today. listen, you were at the end of august right now, it's going to be quiet, but keep in mind, you

had consumer confidence, bernanke, and then the housing data, and at the end of the day, what was it all about, oil prices going lower. >> joe, what's my favorite color card in my wallet? think it's mastercard? >> we don't want to go there, rick. not a good trade enchts you know what, though? we remember the losers, we remember the winners, you remember how good we are every night. >> and kudos to pete. >> building on what guy just said, i'm in the same camp, but i think it's important to know with this shiller data, most of the gains were at the low end, the high end is still struggling, and i think will continue to struggle, maybe because the jumbo loan market is not functioning. >> plus year over year, it was ) not up. >> that's also important. >> that's been the story of ) housing the whole time. we're grasping for anything, we

got a little something today, people felt better about that, consumer confidence numbers, you already get a check on the  confidence number every single ) day.! it's been just kind of hanging in there.b! the s&p has been hanging in there, people are still chasing performance, yaw, oil was down, but the market finished positive, so let's remember that. we weren't down 100, we did come off our highs, but i think you have to be impressed. the market cannot up every single day in every single sector. you're seeing a bit of profit-taking. >> but i'll take the other side of that, listen, obama was talking to the markets today, 9:00 a.m. i thought he wasn't going to announce anything over his vacation. he was talking to market higher today. come on, he had everything today. he had bernanke, consumer confidence, housing, and you know what? the market should have went out on the highs today, it did not. >> but the market is smart enough to price all that in.

we know consumer confidence -- >> because the equities are higher. >> absolutely, then you look at mr. bernanke. it was pretty much a lay-up, but we wanted certainty. the markets like certainty. they don't like when we don't have an idea of the rules and don't know who will be enforcing the rules. now we know it's mr. bernanke, but most of that was built in. if the took a poll out there, 99 economists would have said bernanke would be right back in that seat. >> let's hold off on the other hand. i'm not into economists polls. let's check out the chart of today. the home builders index, ten-month high. this is the man we're going to talk about. what do you think, steve? >> incredibly impressive. i've been wrong, but what gives me some pause is the chart of lumber. it's going all the way back to the march lows. this has to be troubling. i honestly don't get this discrepancy, so i would like to

ask the desk to explain it if anybody has any ideas. with what are they building the houses? >> you look at what the xhb makes up, peek look at the index and think it's home builders, no, it's not. it's williams sonoma, bed, bath and beyond, some home builders are in there, but you have to look at these effs. xle is three stocks, exxon mobil, conoco phillips and chevron. you have to know what's in it. the builders don't make up the indices the way you would expect. >> what you really need to see is inventory begin to be worked off, and then home prices will begin to rise. the data today will probably confirm that the housing bubble

unwind has reached the bottom. >> plus, just to throw more in there, there's tariffs, regulations coming down from canada, quotas, a lot of reasons why lumber can get disconnected. >> let me ask you a question, if the under wind has truly hit bottom, why has the ten-year note remaining here? in the face of a risk grab -- >> can i field that one? >> yes, you're in charge. >> who remembers what last year-over-year cpi was, minus 2.1? where did the ten-year note close today? 2015, add 200 basis points, what do you get? probably a more realistic look. i'm not saying i believe the cpi data, but let's be real here, as long as they auctions keep going like a hot knife through butter, you know there's a lot of

auctions ahead. >> you talk about that indecent, the guise was on the tv, he said, yeah, it's my index, but we could have another leg down. nobody wants to listen to him, but some interesting comments out of him. again, i think people are getting too complacent, exuberant, but i think we're ahead of ourselves. >> the minister of china said the same thing today. >> i think it translates into a wealth effect. consumers can see housing prices, their existing housing prices have bottomed, that wealth effect carries through. look today at the consumer sector. take a look at bed, bath and beyond, best buy, targets, those were the names today, williams sono sonoma, sears was strong as well. pedro and john got into it last night, but it's the cause of this wealth effect that consumers are feelings and it translates into consumer confidence. >> i like a lot of the transition we're seeing in many

areas, and i think you nailed it. not every index -- sometimes you need to dig through to find out what's hot. >> i have an interesting retail trade for you. look at j. crew, the move that it's had since march. they report earnings this thursday after the bell, stock's had a big run-up into earnings, huge short interest. if you think the tape is going down and looking to short a retailer, j. crew mike into earnings, you might get rolled over if you get ahead of the earnings, look for the spike and short into it. top the tapes today, transports, everything climbing on signs that the economy might be turning the corner. >> you look at the rails, the airline industry, and when you look at airlines, you immediately look to oil, but it really all came down to an

upgrade today from a group out there, alaska airlines. the rails have been strong for a long time, why? because of the everybody's expectation of klein's growth. you look at coal, steel, we've talked about it every single night, bring of names like the big machinery makers. caterpillar had great numbers out of china, on that front as far as the mining aspect of their business, but that comes back to who will be moving this around the country. it's the rails. for me right now, i look around and think the best prized is norfolk southern. they seem to be priced about right, maybe lower than the rex of the sector. >> so go to burlington northern on the back of that, which i don't think is priced right, and you look at a chart, go back to january, this is the same level, 84, 84.5 level that we had trouble earlier this year, if you're looking for short plays, maybe that's it.

but i think the run is over. >> it seems like warren buffett was right on this one, maybe a tad early. >> he's not a market timer. everybody expects him to be a bit of a trader, he's becoming more of a trader, we learned that with the j & j moves, but this guy is looking out five, ten years and he was dead right. >> today 'big buzz kill was oil. down 3%, oil stocks down big. let me tell you something. is that what was keeping a lid on the rally and all the technical aspects to a key reversal? boy, we can have some fun with this. >> the rally was choked off by oil prices moving oil, absolutely, but oil was a technical trade. we approach $75, ten-month high, could not elevate above $75. rick, we rolled over and challenged 7150. right now after hours we're traiting 91.34.

we had inventory data come out. i love out, i think it's going higher, longer terms, but you have to get to the sidelines, you have to respect the technicals, and that reversal tells you that market is topped out. >> which means the service names may be shorts as well. by july 6th, it was trading down to 89. i think the oih is for a big move down. you can make an argument, i don't think it gets back down to 89, but you can see it down to 96, 97 oih with a tight stop, nice short. >> this was a $99 a week ago, or index a week ago that got up to 111. you're talking about a 10% move in a week? that's a very rapid move to the up side. i think the names you still want to keep aan eye on, to your point. i think the power play there really goes back to the engineering stocks.

it's flier, foster wheeler, those names have been performing. those are the names i still look to, and when you look at a valuation level and the backlog of something like fluor, these guys are still growing, their proves are flowing, it's a great industry. >> it's not just about oil. we also lost copper today, and also lost the coal names as well. again, it is the sector rotationable from resource commodities names. >> i think there's two important points about oil to make. the first this was not a dollar-related move. this was not a currency move. >> however, that movement didn't quite get up to the neutral line. >> but didn't move anything like oil. the other thing i think to point out, how is china with their stock market buying this much crude? i'm bearish on oil because of china. the august move in tipping us off that the commodities play is

overdone. >> the next trade, goldman, goldman, goldman, guy, goldman is in the news every today. on focus today, the s.e.c. looks into trading tips, meetings, meetings with some of their little closed groups. what do you think about all this? are we continuing to see the press pick on goldman? >> yeah, exactly. the way baseball fans pick on the yankees, leave the guys alone. go after the things that make sense. morning meetings, weekly meetings, a lot of this stuff is nonsense. i'm sure a lot of people think that goldman sachs never went public. i don't buy it. there are a lot of people doing wrong things. i know lloyd personally. he would not allow anything to go on. >> and talking about goldman sachs, the only big disappointment is if you're not one of those people getting the information.

it's the best of breed, and the comments continues to move higher. >> and these guys are willing to take risk. whether we like it or not, with our money they took risks, but they gave us a lot of premium, so you have to like the risks they were willing to take and how they have been taking some of that off as well. you look at goldman sachs, and this is a company that would make $15 on earnings, projected for 2009, maybe this thing is cheaper than we think. at 1.65, 11 p.e., this is a company we all consider best in breed, they do nothing but perform. you have to wonder is goldman sachs still too cheap, even though it's made this huge run. >> they never wanted the taurp money, and they gave it back

with interest. yeah, they took the money, they didn't want it. you go back to noof when they went to the bank holding company, that's when goldman was in the most danger, i think. that's when people were buying $5 puts, not worth $5, strike price $5. that's when they were in trouble. but let's not confuse. t.a.r.p. they never wanted it in the first place. >> and ben bernanke wanted people to take risk. who was the first to do it goldman sachs, they should be applauded. they if exactly what everyone else was unwilling to do, take risk in such a fearful environment. >> and the idea you shouldn't give your best customers your best treatment is silly. there's not a restaurant in new york city that wouldn't give -- >> that's a hard one to swallow. >> is goldman gives its best treatment to its best customers? of course. >> you know, now it's not such a

surprise it's in the papers every day. let's go outside stocks, let's go to the bond market. two-year auction today, now i have a new home. i remember in 2005, 2006, looking at risk, a lot of people knew there could be a dark day coming, this is the time i want to be on record, and if anything doesn't go right with this over the next few years, we're throwing out warnings, we need our fiscal house in order. traders, what do you think? >> i think you hit the one problem on the head. every day at 1:00, i like to tune into cnbc, but you have to watch it every time. sooner or later you could be a pilot and continually land the plane. the one time you have a bad

landing, that's it. >> hours of boredom surrounded by moments of terror? >> exactly. there's going to be one time when you turn on cnbc at 1:00 p.m. and you're jumping up and down saying it's an f, not a b-minus. >> we're just looking at it for what it is. you can't assume the rest of the world is going to gobble this stuff up with their appetite never being satisfied. >> excellent point. the u.s. savings rate is rising enough that domestic savings can take it down. one of the problems we're having in our economy recently was that treasury as a percentage of household savings got so low, and now it's rising dramatically. i think the talk about how badly we need the chinese and petro dollars is really overdone. americans are starting to take down treasuries in a serious way. >> the next trade is interesting. obama doubling down on bernanke today. take a listen.

>> as an expert on the causes of the great depression, i'm sure ben never imagined he would be part of the team responsible for preventing another, but because of the his background, temp rabl, courage and creativity, that's exactly what he has helped to achieve. that is why i'm reappointing him to another term as chairman of the federal research. >> our next guest, he worked with ben bernanke in the white house, he was chairman of the council of economic advisers. i interviewed him a couple years ago. joining us from stanford university, where he is now professor of economics, what a surprise there. welcome, ed. >> good to be back with you, rick. >> give me your take. were you surprised at all today? >> i was probably a bit surprised on the timing, but i think it's a good move for two reasons, one, ben is a capable economist, certainly has studied the area and knows it as well as anybody in the world, but more

important he's been there. this is a situation like a 1 in 100 years hurricane. it came out of the blue. there's no playbook, no set of guidelines, but i think for the most part, and when i say we i mean the bush administration and the fed, got it right. the fed put liquidity into the market early on, they initiated a number of facilities that i think were quite helpful in making sure the market worked, and i think we're back on track. i would say for the most part these moves were good, and i applaud the tlts appointment. >> do you believe that congress will have the political will to allow ben bernanke to do the exit strategy, which would be to soak up liquidity by paying interest on bank reserves, you know that means restrictive lend fog main street. congress is going to let him do it?

>> when i hear rick talk about it, my thought was amen. the problem is the huge expansion in the size of the government. that will be the major problem that the economy faces in the long run. either we're going to have to tax our way out of it, we're going to have to inflate our way out of it or we're going to borrow and then eventually tax or inflate our way out of it. i'm not convinced that congress will see what it's doing in the process of the steps that it's taking right now. >> mr. lazear, always a pleasure. thank you for joining the show. >> thank you. sounds like there's a boatload of trades here. >> none of them are good, apparently. >> probably he's spot on with

what he's talking about. ed revenues weren't there. you can only cost cut your way by so much. >> i think what people don't realize is when you talk about ten-year treasury yields how quickly they can get to 6%. i believe you will see a dramatic shoot higher in the yields and what will that do? make the commodity trade we keep talking about. >> think about it. we haven't gotten the type of recovery where you can guarantee every one of those 99 economists sends up a white flag, the recession is over, prosperity is around the corner. that's where you'll see some bond yield movement. >> i'd like to make the point that government policy really matters for markets, and i brought you a historical chart to show you how much it can matter. this is from president bush under whom the professor served.

march of 2002, which is when president bush enacted steel tariffs. in the wake of 9/11, it looked like we might be going to protectionism. the next is may of 2003, when he went the other way, cutting capital gains. the market took off from there. these are important points to remember. government policy matters. >> plus a boatload of unintended consequences as well. here's what's next on fast "fast money." >> the doctor is in for a street fight. they slug it out. and hurricane bill may have fizzled out, but is there more trouble on the horizon? the liquidator steps into the eye of the storm. plus from deficits to taxes, it's rough out there. it's santelli street, and he's got you covered when america as post-market show continues.

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welcome back to "fast money," live from the nasdaq marketsite. it's time for a good old-fashioned street fight. this is a debate i've been looking forward to, because the whole country is involved.

should the government provide a public option for health care? some say, hey, we believe the economy of a great country should have great health care. others say it's going to bankrupt the country. this is a hot issue whether in the pits of chicago, on the street corner right in front of me, or of course with the former governor and a big dnc executive, chief howard dean, and he's going to join us right now. welcome. >> thanks, rick. >> convince me this is the way to go and we have to have a public option and i'm going to be open-minded. >> this could take a long time here. let's go for it. >> we have two minutes. >> you need americans to have a choice. right now they can sign up for a private insurance company, but they can lose their insurance if they get sick, they can be prevented from having it. if they lose their jobs, they lose insurance and if they move, why not let them sign up for something like medicare, sign

up, it follows you wherever you go, it charges the same whether you're sick or healthy. you have it whether you have a job or don't. it's much steadier. if you don't like that and like your employer system. you can keep that too. >> i'll tell you, two quick points and i'll ask them both and you can address it. we can keep the policy we have if we like it, you can say that and it could be a true statement. the president can say it, but market forces might make it so that it's not a true statement. a. and b, i remember when the campaign and everybody was behind this notion we were talking 12 to 15 million people, giving people that didn't have insurance insurance, now we're up to 45 million potentially, and to me embedded in this is an immigration issue that everybody's been ignoring, i would like to see that addressed before i add those 20 million noun citizens in the group. >> there's not in the group. there's no provision to allow

immigrants to be insured, none. >> how did we get -- what's your number? >> there's about 47 million people uninsured, some of which are undocumented. they don't get insurance under this program? >> they don't? >> absolutely not. >> they go to emergency rooms now, but they won't get covered in the future? >> they'll probably go to the emergency rooms and still get covered, but they don't get covered in this program. first of all, you don't want america to be a magnet for people who are sick in other countries. second of all, i would cover children, because those kids are going to grow up in america and obviously it's better to have them healthy or not, but the bill doesn't call for that. >> i'm all for the consukumbaya who is paying for it? >> a lot of it comes from squishing down costs.

so there's a lot of fat in the system and a lot of that is stuff that's going to be gotten rid of. there's no question about that. >> chairman dean, i have a question, steve cortez. prices have gone up, but so has the quality of health care. things today that are routine a generation ago would have killed grandma. if we take the profit motive away from the pharmaceutical companies, will we have the invasion that we need? >> i don't think we want to take the profit motive away from pharmaceutical companies. they are an incredibly innovative industry i do think we have a problem with the way the health insurance makes their money. they kick people off their coverage if they get sick, and i don't consider that insurance. >> mr. dean, thank you. i'm sure there will be a lot of topics. thank you. >> i was told by the producer we were supposed to shout at each other. >> you know what? you can come back, the next time

i'm in town, and we'll get more aggressive for the crowd. how's that? >> thanks so much. see you soon. >> all right. gang. >> some people get sick, i probably will get sick in my lifetime, but a lot of people are getting sick because of their lifestyle. if i get in a certain amount of car accidents, but folks, start taking better care of yourself and eating better, but just like if you start driving better -- >> you have to have incentive. the whole thing is built on incentives. the one trade that stills comes to me is generic drugs. i look at the profits, and i see this company and all they do is go higher, and they continue to grow. right now 85% of their revenues come from north america and europe. they're growing in japan, i mean, this is a company that's

absolutely incredible, and all stock does does is go a bit higher and higher and they have a branded pharmaceutical as well. they've been in acquisition mode, you've got to love companies like this. the generic is truly the trade-off in this whole health care debate. >> we have a great segue. the obama administration told you today that a lot of us may get sick in the fall, h1n1? >> hey, stake away from the hog, swine, and you have bunch of pork bellies and hog trader that won't give me a parade when i go home. >> that's projections, and a lot of that is very unrealistic. let's not blow this thing out of proportion, with this whole swine flu. >> we know there will be more news on that topic. hey, what about the prop desk?

>> i think the swine flu trade, let's say -- i'll give you 30%. >> that's a high number. >> one of us every night will be out because of swine flu, but i bought some puts in carnival cruise lines. i just can't see the travel industry having any form of resiliency through the remainder of the year if the obama administration comes in on the low end of what the impact could be, and this will have impact. >> gill adhas the best hiv franchise out there and they also have tamiflu. check tamiflu out, and go to their weapon side. that could be a real sleeper going forward. >> i'm considering shorting travel stocks, and i think airlines and casinos -- if you throw this in, and back-to-school time, there are a

lot the problems this summer when kids got together action it could blow up in the fall, and these are extended charts anyway, so i think these are shorts, haven't doone it yet, but looking to pull the trigger on things like wynn, lvs. >> or you could take others who are not worry about it at all. >> what's new in techs? i don't find interests -- moses with the tablet had nor grandeur it's huge, in the blogosphere. it's just hot i hear that they denied some of the facts in the story. this is a biggie, what do we think? >> make jim goldman can help us out. >> jim, are you out there? >> i am out here. what a treat to talk to you. i never get to talk to you. >> jim, what do you think?

>> the tablet has been rumored for years. tablet pcs have had little success, but these netbooks, really inexpensive notebook computers are going gang busters, so if apple could come up with something that marries its iphone technology with this low-cost netbook theory, they would have a huge winner on their hands, so i think that everything agrees that they're working on a tablet. i think this device may be out before year end. everybody at the company says no. >> can you throw -- >> which is so great that you even ask, because you want to talk about the mysticism of apple and power of steve jobs, this is a product with no specks, no release date, yet

piper jaffray is saying this would be worth $1.2 billion in additional revenue. how they can -- >> i'm sorry. i would say the enact that steven jobs has thrown himself into this, do you think there's any kind of e-reader type of an aspect for this, kind of a competitor to the kindle? >> yeah, i mean, everybody has saying that apple needs to get into books, why feed the market to kindle, so sony's e-reader, and why lose basically your huge advantage in these ed indication market if everybody seems to be going to the electronic books? but the other thing is this is going to be a mobile, handheld robust entertainment device, again if you believe the rumors. everything i'm talking to says there is something on in the apple workshop, not ready for

primetime, unlikely before year end, but still something that carries with it huge opportunities. >> hey, jim, thanks for that surprise visit. gang you horks can we make some money? is apple a good buy or has it run its course? >> listen, apple i think is a stock that will trade with the s&p, go down faster than the s&p or -- i think the s&p, which i think apple is a short here. >> coming up on fast "fast money" -- from the housing market to the bond trading pit, rick's answering your questions live. it's santelli street. we just trade on it. plus the liquidator swaps his it for a doppler. i'm racing cross country in this small sidecar,

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number two, it's too defense related. this administration, this congress will not be boosting pentagon budgets going forward. >> 7% drops in burger king? that's a big whopper. >> they had huge income, their margins are improving, talking about global expansion, but i'm freaked out by this whole ad campaign. still prefer yum brands and mcdonald's over this game. >> until it, what, drops 5%? >> you know the market cap is $900 million. gone. they're out of the s&p 500. >> guy? >> better than expected, inventory down 10% year over year, big short-interest in this name. and again it's not going to get to 17, but will get to 14. >> now we have to do a pop for sure area highs. according to the american heart

association, the average american consumes 22 tea spoons of the sweet stuff a day. 22 tea spoons. yes, 22 tea spoons, an amazing story. i'm not sure if there's a trade in this somehow, but we have to give a pop to sugar. >> we have some sugar trades later. big lots? >> beat estimates, raised guidance. i like discount retailers in this environment. >> mastercard closing up 2%, pete? >> you have to like what they put an 80 on visa. big transaction, a one-day evern, we don't have to worry about it. >> just a one-day event for me, too. >> staples a drop, 2%. >> technical formation, you tell me what to do. 2306 high, today 2290, a bet of

a top formation, what do you want to do, rick? >> it it closes below the low of today in the next two days, i go short. we're talking about college here, corinthian college, up 6%? >> you know what, better than expected quarter. they guided higher for 2010. another big name, apalo, i like apollo better. >> our final pop is for this guy -- >> put the camera on me. >> scares me. what goes he looking at? is she looking at me? >> i don't have nice teeth like you do. that's the way it is, reg. >> yes, a pop for regis philbin. he's "live with region and kelly." turns 78 today. tv legend, honorary "fast money"

trader, and he was born on august 25th of '31. regis, our hats off to you. just a sidebar, my wife told me yesterday it was your birthday today. when i saw the segment, it made me smile. congratulations and happy birthday. don't move. lots more coming up.

welcome back to "fast money." hey, it's time to head to

santelli street. we ask you to send in your questions, questions and youtube clips, and we received a bubble. here is what joe wanted to know. >> an underwriter requires two appraisals, that appraisal devalues the property for six months. please explain why this is causing more harm than good. >> it's a great question. actually there's a simple answer. if you're doing a traditional mortgage through fha, putting your 3.5% down, loan to value is fine, you don't have to worry about the second appraisal. if you're doing a cash-back mortgage that's what you're opening yourself into, along with other criteria, but it's a cash-back mortgage reify. if that's not what you'ring into, you don't have to worry about it. next question is from ron in coven ton, ohio. he asking, why do interest rates keep declining when the supply is growing bigger? i love this question, and the

answer is concerned of easy. first of all, remember we're going through a crisis. exactly how far out of the crisis is anybody's guess, but there's definitely the safe harbor notion to treasuries. we also have a big quid rho proquo with other countries that recycle their dollars in. the big test will be when we see the light of day when in terms of recoveries. i agree, counterintuitive, but it might not last long. >> rick, i couldn't agree more. americans are starting to take down the treasuries, we can handle the supply. >> it doesn't come up in a lot of discussions, especially the demand side of it. "fast money" fans, keep the questions coming, especially since i'll be guest hosting for another day. e-mail me your youtube questions and more "fast money" coming up next. some people buy a car based on the deal they get.

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it was four years ago this week the u.s. experienced the costliest hurricane of all time, and while the first this year proved to be a wash, nothing big, investors shouldn't be so quick to turn a blind eye to this season's potential impact in terms of hurricanes and storms. take a look.

while bill did little more that keep beachgoers ashore, it doesn't mean we're in the clear yet. >> statistically speaking, the next few weeks could be active. >> it's all about location, location, location. let's say a hurricane is headed toward galveston. 18 of texas's refineries are near the coast, representing 23% of all u.s. refining capacity. any closures from a storm is likely to send oil and gas prices soars. if the hurricanes moves inland, significant rains could drown out the late season of corn and soy bean, sending their prices skyrocketing. if the price is east of louisiana, it could dramatically affect sugar and cotton, two commodities severely challenged. before you tune out al, remember

every inch of rain has the potential to make you some fast money. so weatherman joe, how do we play the rest of the season? >> everyone thinks oil, but that's not the play. you have to go with the refiners that benefits from the price spike as well as being able to continue you have to their production rolling, so sun knocko, away from the gulf, they benefit. this was no a quick, quick trade. here's katrina, 8/26, here's holly corp. this keeps going through the remainder. why? because the fundamentals, physical supply gets so disrupted, this is your trade, and buy a refiner away from the gulf. >> we've been flirting with that $3 level in natural gas. is there a trade here? it seems like a natural, joe.

>> sure. if you get a hurricane that goes into the gulf and natural gas rises on it, i want you to run for cover, don't put that trade on, find something to actually sell it short, look at that chart. does that look like a charlotte up to buy right now? there's a tremendous amount of supply. not only do you need a hurricane, but three, four, five behind it, and you're just not going to get it. >> what do we think about the insurers here? >> these things have run, run, run. you just wonder have they run so much into this? allstate, some of these names. they have already peaked it seems. >> it's all about how much capacity is in the system of none of this is easy to do. the next thing coming up is the final trade, right after this. . ( chirp ) team three, boathouse? ( chirp ) oh yeah-- his and hers. - ( crowd gasping ) - ( chirp ) van gogh? ( chirp ) even steven. - ( chirp ) mansion. - ( chirp ) good to go.

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protect your family, launch your dreams. up top spot goes to eddie lamper, made a whopping $90 million today on an investment at autonation. the stock was up over 6%. this comes at a time where eddie's had a rough time with sears. let's go for the final trade. around the horn.

>> let's stay on the hurricane theme. i like imperial sugar. >> if oil reversed today, short oih. >> become. >> my final trade is a request to regis. happy birthday, next time when you come, will you bring kelly, please? >> i second that request, but i love reg. >> this stock seems like it's moving higher. tune in tomorrow 5:00 to midnight for more fast "fast money" right here on cnbc. tomorrow the clock is running out on earnings season. guy and pete have the last pc play of the summer. and they go head to head with the guy who wrote the book

on the money mayhem. gentlemen, you booked your hotels on orbitz. well, the price went down, so you're all getting a check thanks. for the difference. except for you -- you didn't book with orbitz, so you're not getting a check. well, i think we've all learned a valuable lesson today. good day, gentlemen. thanks a lot. thank you. introducing hotel price assurance, where if another orbitz customer books the same hotel for less, we send you a check for the difference, automatically.